Aussie weather forecast that’s hard to believe


Even before La Nina ends, meteorologists are warning that another climatic factor could return by 2023.

Early computer modeling suggests El Nino could return next year after three straight years of La Nina bringing torrential rains to large parts of the country.

While La Nina pushes warm surface waters toward Asia and northern Australia, an El Nino will create warmer surface temperatures in the central or eastern Pacific Ocean.

The trade winds weaken or reverse during this period and the result is reduced rainfall over India, Indonesia and northern Australia.

An El Nino weather model could possibly arrive by 2023. Max Fleet
Camera iconAn El Nino weather model could possibly arrive by 2023. Max Fleet Credit: News Regional media

La Nina has a 90% chance of staying in place for the next three months, according to Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino.

Neutral conditions become “more likely” during the Southern Hemisphere summer through mid-2023.

“Further into the future, these outlooks suggest that El Nino will become the most likely state of the Pacific Ocean at the end of the Southern Hemisphere winter in 2023,” Domensino said.

This is the first time in three years that this monthly outlook has favored El Niño as the most likely climate factor in the Pacific Ocean.

Drought near Mildura
Camera iconThis will mean less rainfall. Alex Coppel Credit: News Corp Australia

However, Domensino recommends treating these prospects with some caution.

It comes after a rare La Nina “triple dip” was declared earlier this year that brought torrential rains and major flooding to east coast states for the third year in a row.

New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland have all been hit with significant rainfall this year as severe weather events have occurred, soaking already saturated soils and causing multiple floods .

The Bureau of Meteorology said in October that La Nina, a negative Indian Ocean dipole, the southern annular mode and the approaching Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) all contributed to the wet winter and spring. from the country.

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